Why are we such creatures of habit and does that mean there is actually such thing as a honey hole, perfect rod, reel or lure or even luck? And does that impact our perception of what luck actually is?
I’m not a superstitious person, I will have a banana on my boat because they are delicious and a handy snack, I don’t have lucky undies, shorts, shirts or hats, I do have a routine that is based purely around not forgetting or losing stuff or making sure I get to the boat ramp on time but it isn’t some invisible force that means I catch or don’t catch fish that day.
I think of the “must have” lure at the moment and wonder what success it would have, if it weren’t in every tackle box in the country, I think of every time I’ve been told that “if we just fish ‘insert location’ here, I always get a fish from there” or how we always catch them when fishing with a particular fishing rod and then I realise that the sample size is actually quite small and tainted.
My favourite lure, in my favourite colour, is tied on before EVERY fishing trip, meaning it has an almost 100% chance of being thrown, naturally increasing the odds of it catching a fish. The lure I like the least, in the worst colour imaginable is never tied on, naturally removing any chance of it catching a fish. What I could conclude from this, is if I cherry pick the data, that my least favourite lure is poorly suited to fishing.
Hopefully you can see my point, that the frequency in which we use a particular item, may have a direct reflection of how “lucky” it is perceived to be, through the success achieved through that frequency, rather than some aspect of that item.
To further use an example, the Cranka Crab is a new release into the fishing market for a couple of reasons. It is uniquely designed, the first of its kind (that I’m aware of) and has a demand that is outstripping supply. Let me state, I think they are an effective fishing lure but when they were first released, they were all the rave, many anglers were using them and there was a lot of success. There seemed to be a perception that it could be the silver bullet or “answer to turning fishing into catching” but I wonder how frequently it was used in that time, compared to other proven lures.
The same can be said for those days fishing where the fish are “only eating ‘insert lure here’”. I wonder if that is actually the case or as anglers, we know when we stumble onto something good and we therefore go ahead and keep doing it.
I don’t think luck has much to do with it at all, I think it’s all about probability and the fact that we’re creatures of habit.